Over the past month, speculation has been swirling—at least in Northern California—that the San Francisco Giants will trade for Carlos Beltran. Now that speculation has become widespread with ESPN reporting that the Giants are very close to acquiring the star outfielder.
One source said he was "95 percent sure" that it would get done before the July 31 trading deadline. When a second source was presented with that, he said, "You are on the right track. You are in the right direction."
As part of a package for Beltran, the Giants would include pitcher Zack Wheeler, sources told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.
We all know what Beltran can bring to the Giants, when healthy. Of course Beltran’s health is a giant caveat, considering Beltran only played in 81 games in 2009 and 64 games in 2010. However, Beltran has been on the field in 2011, playing in 98 of the New York’s 103 games, so far.
Not only has Beltran been on the field in 2011, but he’s also shown that he’s still a top-flight talent. Through 419 plate appearances in 2011 Beltran has hit .289/.391/.513 with 15 home runs. That production would help any team, but especially the Giants, considering Beltran would immediately become San Francisco’s top hitter.
Beyond Beltran’s on-field production, we also know that he’s a free agent after the season, has a clause in his contract preventing his team from offering him salary arbitration, and has Scott Boras as his agent. In a nutshell, following the season Beltran is likely to sign elsewhere, and without the potential of salary arbitration, whichever team acquires him will get nothing in return.
Let’s assume for a second that the Giants acquire Beltran and let’s assume that the package is the one involving Zack Wheeler, who is mentioned above. What do we know about Wheeler?
Wheeler was the 6th overall selection in the 2009 draft. He’s only 21 years old and pitching for the San Jose Giants. Wheeler is a highly touted prospect, ranked #36 in all of baseball by ESPN’s Keith Law.
Here’s Wheeler's scouting report, according to Keith Law:
“Wheeler missed a chunk of the first half of 2010 with a badly cracked fingernail that forced him to slightly alter the way he grips the baseball and hurt his control, but it had no effect on the quality of his stuff. Wheeler will sit at 90-94 mph and show 96 or better with a big, slow, but tight curveball in the low to mid-70s; he has been mixing in an above-average slider in the 85-89 range and will flash an average changeup, the one pitch for which he doesn't show great feel yet.
Wheeler still is filling out physically and should have the workhorse, 220-inning build we expect from No. 1 starters, although I'm a little concerned about the stress his arm action might put on his shoulder. Overall he's an elite arm, with the potential for four average or better pitches including a plus fastball and the body to handle a big workload.”
In a vacuum, talent for talent, Wheeler for Beltran is a pretty fair trade. Beltran obviously has more current value than Wheeler, considering he’s a six-time All Star, who—when healthy—has consistently performed in the major leagues. Wheeler, however, has much more future value than Beltran, at least as far as San Francisco is concerned.
Consider first that Beltran is a free agent and will more than likely leave the Giants this offseason, or if he does stay, it will cost the Giants a multi-year multi-million dollar contract. Wheeler, on the other hand, is under club control for at least the next four years and it comes at a relatively low cost.
Not only that, San Francisco is a franchise that’s built around its pitching. Starting in 2011, that pitching becomes much more expensive. Further still, starting in 2013 a significant portion of San Francisco’s vaunted rotation becomes free agents, including Jonathan Sanchez and Matt Cain. Tim Lincecum will become a free agent in 2014.
So best case scenario, San Francisco can keep its rotation intact, but it’s going to become extremely expensive. Worst case scenario, one or more of its workhorses will sign elsewhere, leaving the team with nothing beyond draft pick compensation.
If you’re Brian Sabean, you have to weigh whether winning this year is more important than the potential value that Wheeler provides once the rest of your pitching staff is eligible for free agency. And if speculation is true, it appears as if Sabean is taking the contemporary approach, rather than worrying about the long-term sustainability of his club.
It’s a bold decision and one that I wouldn’t be willing to make. Beyond Wheeler there aren’t any other impact starting pitching prospects in the Giants organization. And with the uncertainty of what will happen with all of the other starting pitchers, I’d be sure to hang on to the one asset that I do have.
There’s no certainty that Wheeler even pans out in the major leagues. But given San Francisco’s track record of drafting and developing pitchers, that’s one chance I wouldn’t be willing to take. And given the crapshoot nature of the playoffs, there’s no guarantee that the Giants win the World Series, even with Carlos Beltran.
If it were me, I’d build my team through player development. It’s much cheaper than free agency and you don’t have to go out and trade your prospects to get help at the major league level. For that reason, I wouldn’t trade one of my top prospects, who I could control for at least five years of service time, for a guy who could help me for three months.
Of course, if San Francisco brings in Beltran and he helps it bring in another World Series ring, then it’s a trade well-worth making.
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